Those picks went 1-3.

Discipline has probably been my biggest problem since I started letting myself get interested in all of this about two years ago and it is one of the reasons why I am going to try to keep up with this website from here on out.  I was initially going to shut it down but I glanced at the views and even with no posts over the last few weeks it had cracked 30,000.  I understand those are not unique but I figure enough people stop by that it will provide the perfect medium to post plays and work on certain aspects of my handicapping.  Discipline being the most important.

If I can’t pull myself together enough for a quick post every day how can expect to stay off that second half play when 80% of the points in my under have already been scored in the first half.

Sunday, I stayed away from the chasing, tailed one pick from So Money Sports, and ended up being 7-2 for a little comeback so I know that it can be done.

Last night was a lucky 2-0 with the Broncos and the over so NFL ended up being 9-2.  I can only hope that this weeks picks are anywhere close to last weeks.

Here they are.

____________________________________________________________________________________

Thursday 10/18

• Sff (-7) – Local

Sunday 10/21

• Ari/Min (u40) – Local
• Car (+2.5) – Local
• Nyg (-6) – 5dimes
• Tbb (+3) – Local
• Jax (+4) – Local
• Cin (+3) – Local
• Cle (+3.5) – Local
• Ten (+3.5) – Local

Monday 10/21

• Chi (-5.5) – Local

I also like New England and I will probably add them into a teaser.

I called him immediately just to find out that because I didn’t bet a lot of money my lack of wagers made it too costly for him to keep my account open.  If you are not familiar with the pph system that bookies use, they have to pay a small fee every week for every one of their players whether they make one bet or 100 bets.

My choices were to either start making more bets or start betting more money.

I had  become way more selective but still had not built the bankroll to feel comfortable raising my bet size.  After hitting 7 out of my last 8 NBA bets I decided to ramp up my volume, started losing, went on tilt and almost quit sports betting.

After a short stint taking action and several months organizing and tracking the ITG Team I am back where I started on January 11th of 2012 trying my very best to be an impactful sports bettor and also writing about the journey.

I have hit a nice stride with my sports betting, I feel like I have a strong plan, and I’m ready to get going again with the original agenda.

I’ll close by thanking Peyton Manning for essentially bringing my Broncos +2 and over 49.5 bets back to life.

Winner winner.

__________________________________________________________________________________

Oh yeah…here are some bets.  Some of you know that I make the majority of my wagers based on an obscene spreadsheet I have built over nearly 2 years of trying different methods of research and handicapping.  Here is what it says about the in week college games.

*I use 2 local books, 5dimes, Betonline, Youwager, & Bookmaker.  I will always post the best line I can find.  If you don’t have a bookie you should try your best to find one as it is not uncommon to find a lot of value with dogs through locals.

The game on Tuesday ended up being a no play on the side and total even though I was tempted to take Ullaf and swallow the points.

Here is what I did come up with.

Thursday 10/18

• Smu (+6) – local
• Hou/Smu (o60) – 5dimes
• Arzst (+9.5) – local
• Ore/Arzst (o68.5) – 5dimes

Friday 10/19

• Conn (+5.5) – local

Good Luck!

It was fun while it lasted.

If you haven’t caught my drift yet I have decided to officially retire the ITG Team.  This time for real.

First I want to thank all of the members that were involved.  So many great handicappers left their mark and some had the platform to show how good they really were.

Second, and most important, I want to thank everyone that followed and supported the team.  We carried it as long as we could and it was because of you guys.

Just  because there will no longer be an ITG Team doesn’t mean that there aren’t people out there, on twitter, willing to help.  You just might have to look a little harder.  Keep your eyes open and always ask questions.  Don’t ever be a wall flower.  Hell, I just DMed @WesReynolds1 tonight asking if I could email him to pick his brain..

Once again thank you all and more importantly good luck with whatever you get down on!

ITG

Of Course!

Amazingly, he actually gave another guy we work with 17.5 points for twenty bucks.  I think he second guessed his wager with me when I wanted to get down for a 100 and that’s how I got jipped into taking 10.

The whole process got me thinking.

Sports bettors are supposed to go to all links to get the best of the number but maybe for some of us that opportunity is right in front of us every day.

Yep…family, friends, & work.

Sure, your average dime bettor probably couldn’t take advantage of this, but for a guy like me who bets 20 to a 100 dollars a game, why not?

Go to any place of business in the state of Texas and you will find a die-hard Cowboys fan lurking the halls.  In a week from today, the Cowboys are getting four points against the Giants.  If I looked hard enough I could probably find someone who remembers those glory days and would gladly give seven points.

What about in the heart of Alabama.  You think Michigan and 21 points can be had?  Roll Tide.

Surely there are some crazy Pats fans in bean town that just know Brady and Co. roll by two plus touchdowns on that first NFL Sunday.  They might even risk a 50 dollar bill on it.

Hell, I know I can get some value on a few Longhorns games around these parts.  I just need to wait for a week when they are seven point dogs.  The Longhorns never lose by less than 10 as far as the orange bloods are concerned.

I am hoping to bleed the Aggie all year and I plan on taking more of an interest in all of my co-workers favorite teams.   You never know when I might be able to pick up a 20 dollar bill here and there.

I know I have.

I think any of us that do this have some sort of aspiration to significantly supplement our income if not it be our main source.  To watch and study sports all day would definitely qualify as a dream job in my book.

Lets assume that you are making 1,000 picks per year or 2.74 per day on average.  You are betting roughly 3% of your bankroll and on average you are hitting at 55% while playing games with an average money line of -110.  You should win 550 games and lose 450 games and you are in the top level of all sports bettors.

Here are the numbers.

If you bet $10 per game:

You need a bankroll of $333 and your yearly winnings will come in at $550 or $45 per month.  With this you should almost be able to afford a monthly plan for one of those off brand cell phone companies.

If you bet $50 per game:

You need a bankroll of $1667 and your yearly winnings will be $2750 or $229 per month.  This amount would most likely be able to cover your auto insurance if you have a decent driving record and 3 cars.

If you bet $100 per game:

You need a bankroll of $3333 and your yearly winnings will be $5500 or $458 per month.  With a good credit score your sports betting prowess is now able to fund the monthly payment for a pretty nice car.

If  you bet $300 per game:

You need a bankroll of $10,000 and your yearly winnings will be 16,500 or $1375 per month.   If you are currently a shift manager at Taco Bell and you are content with this income then by all means quit your job and start watching and researching sports all day.  You are now a professional.

Ok, ok.  You get the idea.  Lets step it up.

If you bet $1000 per game:

You will need a bankroll of $33,333 and your yearly winnings will be $55,000 or $4583 per month.  Considering that these winnings will most likely be off the books  you are really making somewhere closer to $70,000 per year which is a very respectable income.  Factor in the consideration of what you are actually calling “work” and I would take this scenario 6 days a week and twice on sunday.

Now lets say you are already pulling in $100,000 and you want to maintain that lifestyle.  You can do one of two things.  You can bet $2000 per game with a bankroll of $66,667 and win  $110,000 per year (which is realistically a W2 income of over $140,000) or you can stick with the $1000 bets, keep your job and just build yourself a nice nest egg.

However, if you are at this level you might as well just bet $3000 per game so you can quit your real job and still build your nest egg.  At this point it is Tony Montana or bust.

These are very simple calculations and none actually take into account wanting to grow your bankroll but the crazy thing about all of these scenarios is that they involve the exact same sports bettor.  The difference is merely the amount being bet.  If you are disciplined, consistent and you can efficiently manage your money then why not figure out a way to get down for larger amounts.

It seems like you are leaving money on the table if you don’t.

I was joking of course but it got me thinking.

I have lost more than I won in the almost two years that I have been really involved in sports betting.  I am probably close to even in the last year but that first year was tough.  I won’t put a number on it in fear that my wife might actually read this blog but it was ugly.

To be honest I really think over that same time period I have picked games at a clip better than fifty-three percent.  My problem has been money management.

I have taken little breaks but to be honest it is hard for me to even be interested in anything sports betting without money risked in some form or fashion.  I even almost quit the ITG team so that I could focus more time and energy into my own handicapping.

I figure there are a lot like me.  New and struggling sports bettors.  I came up with a money management plan that might be useful and here it is.

- First I will establish a bankroll.  For this example I’ll start with five hundred dollars.

- Now I will establish a percentage that I want to make for every bet.  Somewhere around three percent will be safe while also allowing me to grow my bankroll.  That comes out to fifteen dollars for every bet.

- Now I will take three envelopes.  I will label one “bankroll” and put the five hundred in that one.  I will label the other two “bookie” and “winnings”.  It is important to legitimately take five hundred cash and put it in the envelope.  Make it unavailable to yourself any other form or fashion besides this exercise.

- Now I will pick three offshore sites so that I can shop lines and I will use these lines to pick games that I want to wager on.  It is important to use actual lines that are available at the time you make your choice.  Don’t cheat!

- If I win my bet I will take my winnings out of the bankroll envelope and put it in the winnings envelope.  So if I bet $15 to win $13.63 I will put the $13.63 in the winnings envelope.

- If I lose my bet I will take the $15 and put into the bookie envelope.

- From here on out any losses will be taken from the winnings envelope first before I dig back into the bankroll envelope and any winnings will be taken from the bookie envelope before I pull from the bankroll envelope.

- The concept is simple.  If I am able to completely fill the winnings envelope with the contents of the bankroll envelope then I can take that $500 and use it to bankroll an account with a local as well as accounts at offshore books.  If the bookie envelope is the first to fill up then I should take the contents, refill the bankroll envelope and start over.

I can see how impatience could set in and if you are on a great run or you have your winnings envelope filled with three hundred dollars you might want to jump the gun.  Just remember that for sports bettor trying to turn a true long-term profit this is a very long-term game.  There are things to bet on every day of the year so just be patient and keep practicing.  You aren’t betting with monopoly money.  You are earning the right to risk your cold hard cash in what is a very challenging past time.

Oh yeah.  If you hit a ten team parlay early on to fill your winnings envelope you might not want to open those accounts just yet.  Go ahead and give yourself one more practice round.

One of the first things you learn when you become involved in sports betting (if you have done any research) is to track everything.  Have you ever gone back among those records to see if you can pick up any trends?

Not with the games but with yourself.

Another thing you learn is to be unemotional.  Every sport is the same, every team is the same, every bet is the same.  So if you are consistent and you never go on tilt can you find moments when it is beneficial for you to increase your risk?

Do you buy low and sell high?

Do you up your play when there are more tens in the shoe?

Can you even know?

Maybe those things happen over too big of a sample size for us to really know or maybe there is something actually there.  Maybe you can pull a Pete Rose and bet on yourself.

The ups and downs are inevitable.  The moment that you think you are invincible you are going to have that 0 for 4 day.  That is probably too small of a sample size but when if you hit fifty percent over thirty or forty plays.  If you know yourself and your trends is there a chance that you up your stake a bit on the next thirty or forty?

I know for a fact that some guys I follow bet more on some sports than they do on others.  Not because that sport is better to bet on but because they are better sports bettors when it comes to that sport.  Does it get even more detailed than that?

I can honestly say that I am not implying anything here because I don’t know but I really am curious.  Do we have trends?

I read all of the time that a true sports bettor will take a shot no matter what he is betting on when he finds an increased edge.  So is it possible that he will also look for an edge within himself?

Check your records and let me know if you find anything.

In those days though priority was just making it through each semester and having as much fun as possible.  I couldn’t tell you exactly how Gilby came across offshore sportsbooks but he was into it.  He checked the internet for the most reputable ones and everything.  If I remember correctly his two favorites were what was then Sportsbook.com and Pinnacle.  You have to remember this was ten years ago.

Gilby’s parents went to Vegas all of the time so even in high school he held an interest.  He would have us over and he would be the house in very clumsy blackjack games.  He tried to teach me craps on more than one occasion but to this day I still am a bit confused when I stand at the table.

I think he started off playing black jack on those offshores and graduated up to sports betting.  It seemed like whatever he won betting on sports he would then lose back to the online casino.  He taught me what spreads and money lines were and my first sports bets which were always on the Mavs and their overs were usually placed under his consultation.  I remember a Purdue comeback that closed out a parlay that won me like $26 bucks.  I don’t remember many bets but I could probably rattle off five of those from ten years ago faster than I could rattle off five from this last year.

At some point Gilby realized that he was good enough betting on baseball that he had a real chance to win some money and he quit with the online black jack.  We even started up a live black jack game out of my apartment but he ended up meeting his future wife and he couldn’t help out as much so we had to fold the operation which was bringing in some nice cash by the way.  Shutting down that black jack game will always be one my biggest college regrets.

I probably found out about the same time as she did that he had quit his job when that next baseball season rolled around because he had planned on betting baseball full-time.  I remember asking him how much he bet and he told me he didn’t get out of bed for less than a hundred dollars.  I couldn’t believe it to be honest.  Hell, to this day, betting a hundred a game is a lot to me.  You can imagine how I felt as a broke college kid.

We rolled through that baseball season and when it was over he never got a job.  I guess just being on his own time and not answering to anyone was enough of an enticement for him to give the NBA a shot.  We didn’t really need much money those days.  Hell we could probably make it through a whole month with eight hundred to a thousand dollars so I guess he wasn’t too worried.  These days I can’t make it through a week with that much.  It’s funny how things change.

He was spending more time with his girl and I was working full-time in what I guess you could call a management position at a telemarketing company so I guess that is when we really started drawing apart.   I was obviously surprised when I heard that he had proposed.

“Did your parents buy the ring?”

“Nope.”

“Damn, you must be cleaning up in the NBA then.”

“Not exactly.”

What I heard next, ten years before I even really got interested in sports betting, is still my favorite sports betting story of all time.

It turns out Gilby had been getting his ass handed to him in basketball.  He apparently just really knew baseball (he played a for a year in college if that makes a difference) but he didn’t really know sports betting.  He had maxed out all of his credit cards and was sitting on something like six to seven thousand in debt.  Every last penny was to the sports books.  He thought about credit counseling but he eventually just decided to let his parents know what had happened and hope that they bailed him out.  Hell, they were the ones that had given him the gambling bug anyways.  He would just call them and then quit sports betting forever.

He had the phone out and ready to dial but decided he would have one more night of drinking his ass off before he dropped the bomb on them.  As he was getting ready to leave it occurred to him that if he was going to go down he might as well go down in flames.  He had $800 or so left in his sportsbook.com account which he initially planned to cash out the next day but I guess he wanted some action one more time.

He quickly logged on and did an $800 four game dart throw parlay on some random NBA games.  He didn’t do a lick of handicapping.  He just clicked on them, hit confirm, and went to the bar.

You know what happened next.

Those three favorites to cover and one money line dog to win outright all hit.  They all fucking hit.

Gilby came home that night to a sportsbook.com account with over twelve thousand dollars in it.

He told me he was too drunk to even show any emotion.  Hell he was probably like a lot of you guys and the grind of it all had taken all of his emotion anyways.  He processed a cash out, paid extra for it to be delivered within twenty four hours and he passed out.

When it showed up he paid off all of the credit cards, bought his girl a ring, and according to him just took a little time off before finding a real job.  He didn’t plan on betting anymore.

I don’t think that was his last bet.  In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if he maxed out another card or two.  I do know that he and his wife are still happily married and they have a beautiful little girl.  I called him during the Mavs title run to ask him his advice on how to hedge a series bet I had on them to beat the Lakers.  I can’t remember his exact advice but I remember thinking I didn’t really agree with it.  The s.o.b. still didn’t know how to bet the NBA.

The true sports betting community on twitter is actually a pretty intimate and tight nit group.  Imagine that a guy on the ITG team with a 1000 + followers lays out his 4 picks for the day.  Another team member (also with 1000 + followers) notices that the first guy released his picks and says something to the effect of “I liked that play too but didn’t pull the trigger.”

He has only posted 3 picks so he makes that same pick his 4th pick with a “Decided to make “misc. pick” my fourth #ITGteam play.”  Now another team member who just logged in and has only one pick he likes goes to his #ITGteam search and sees that these two guys are on the same pick.  It’s fun to win in a crowd and it’s not as bad to lose in the crowd so he makes that his second team pick.

Team member four who is also scrolling through team picks but has made his four already notices this “consensus” pick and tweets “It looks like a few ITG team members are on “misc. pick” I am going to also make a small play on this.”

If these four guys have a total of 2500-3000 followers combined then they might have somewhere between 1200-1500 unique followers that have seen four ITG team members show some love for one pick.  How many of those guys decide to pick up that play as well?

Now I log on and as I am scrolling through my time line of 250 people I notice that four team members are on this pick as well as another eight guys that aren’t on the team.  I miss the “I liked that play too but didn’t pull the trigger” tweet so to me it looks like for the most part this is a pretty original pick.  A true consensus pick.  I play it because everyone loved it and it loses.

So now, here I am, chastising myself for tailing a consensus pick.  I mean a consensus pick is a public pick right?  ITG you are such an idiot.  Be contrarian, think for yourself!

What I didn’t realize is my consensus pick really wasn’t a consensus pick at all.  It was a pick that one guy made and another guy kinda liked.  From there without any real discussion it spread like wildfire.  Everyone played it because everyone loved it and when it lost no one knew why.

The funny thing is that the first guy that posted it before anyone else ended up going 3-1.  The consensus pick was his only loss.

Tonight I was scrolling through my twitter timeline and noticed someone tweet “The Cardinals are gonna blow it.”

I knew they would hold on and here is why.

It was Friday the 22nd when AM walked up to me and asked me to place a bet for him.  I was skeptical for two reasons.  First, AM had been cut off by our bookie and second he works for me.

Against my better judgement I made a wager on the Rangers run line for him.  They won 4 to 1.  I got a late night text  that read “ship it!!”.

The next morning he walked up to me and said “I feel like the Rockies are going to win tonight.  Lets do it.”

“Wait a minute” I replied.  ”Do you know who they are playing?”

“No.  Who?”

“They’re playing the Rangers you idiot.  You bet on them yesterday.  If you are going to make a bet today bet on the Yankees.”

He mulled it over and then told me to take his winnings and parlay the Yankees with the Rangers run line.

“You just said you thought the Rockies were gonna win?  Just bet the Yankees.  Pay the juice.”

When the Rangers lost 11 to 7 AM chastised me for costing him his parlay and talking him off of +215 winner.

He explained to me that he just woke up that morning and the Rockies were on his mind.  The same thing happened the day before.  He was sitting at his desk when “Rangers!” just popped into his head.

He then told me if I wanted to win some money to make a bet on the Phillies.

“They already played.”

“Did they win?”

“Well yeah.”

“Told ya”

The next morning (Sunday) I played golf with AM and as soon as he showed up he claimed Tampa Bay was the play.  This was at 9:30 a.m.  The Rays were +160 dogs and they won that night 7 to 3.

The following day at work when he showed up at 11 he poked his head into my office and gave me the “told ya so” about the Rays.  He followed it up with a tip on the Phillies.  I was considering a parlay on the Rangers and the Nats so I asked him “Texas or Detroit?”

He thought for a second and replied “The Tigers.”

“Washington or Colorado?”

After a moment…”I don’t know…I don’t see it.”

The Phillies won 8 to 3.  Both the Rangers and the Nationals lost.

This morning I tracked him down and asked him who the winner was going to be.  By this time I was calling him “The Bet Whisperer.”

“I don’t know but the Cardinals have just really been on my mind.”

Now you know why I knew they were going to pull it out.  I thought AM got cut off by our bookie because of large losses and slow settle ups.  Maybe he really got cut off because of mystical powers.

I am looking forward to see who the Bet Whisperer picks tomorrow.